← Game Center Narellan DTR Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Game Center Narellan DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1259
Q3 1436
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rile | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
